On April 7, Mexico's two main presidential candidates – Claudia Scheinbaum of the ruling Morena party and Bertha Xochitl Galvez of the Mexican Electoral Union of Power and Love – Participated in the first of three televised debates. The debate set the stage for a tight race ahead of the June 2 election, with Sheinbaum currently in the lead.
galvez debate fight
Galvez, who represents the coalition of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the National Action Party (PAN) and the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), faced a challenging performance. Despite her energy, Galvez struggled to articulate her political and social proposals effectively. Her attempts to attack Sheinbaum were pointed and pointed and failed to have any real impact. After the debate, Galvez acknowledged her poor performance and attributed it to not trying to “be herself.”
The debate performance didn't help Galvez's standing in the polls, with her still trailing Sheinbaum by about 24 points. Sheinbaum's approval rating is 58-60%, and Galvez's approval rating is 34-36%. Galvez's path to victory looks increasingly difficult.
Scheinbaum's Background and Criticisms
Sheinbaum, a scientist with a Ph.D. PhD in Energy Engineering, previously served as Minister of Environment in Mexico City under AMLO. She faced major challenges as head of Mexico City's government, including a subway collapse and a growing water crisis. Despite these loopholes, Galvez failed to exploit these issues during the debate.
Sheinbaum's relationship with current President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador works to her advantage as his moderate social programs are popular. Obrador's measures such as cash transfers and wage increases have benefited millions and sustained public support. As López Obrador's handpicked successor, Sheinbaum's promise to continue implementing these programs appears more credible to voters.
Third candidate Jorge Alvarez Menez
The third candidate in the debate is Jorge Alvarez Menez of the Civic Movement Party, whose focus is on the “social market economy”. Although he still holds a commanding lead in the polls at 5-6%, his presence adds another dimension to the electoral landscape. Menez scored some points after the debate, suggesting his platform has some traction.
Obrador’s impact and legacy
Obrador’s influence on the current election is undeniable. The PRI and PAN have lost considerable support since their landslide victory in 2018, while the PRI is almost moribund politically. Despite criticism from some on the American right, Obradov has maintained a cooperative relationship with the United States, especially on issues such as immigration and economic policies that favor American investment.
For example, Obrador, who has played a major role in controlling mass migration from Latin America and the Caribbean, has supported Biden's policies. Additionally, his administration's “Republican austerity policies” focus spending on specific projects such as the Maya train and Pemex's Dos Bocas refinery, while maintaining an environment conducive to U.S. investment.
Economic Policy and Social Planning
During López Obrador's tenure, the United States has made significant investments, such as Musk's Tesla factory near Monterrey. Despite the popularity of his social programs, Obrador has done little to disrupt Mexico's oligarchy and maintains friendly relations with billionaires such as Carlos Slim Helu. This relationship keeps major reforms, such as raising taxes on the wealthy, off the table.
Sheinbaum has vowed not to increase taxes on the wealthy or corporate profits, signaling that social programs could be undermined by economic turmoil or increased military spending. NGOs led by Oxfam Mexico estimate that maintaining existing social services will require an increase in spending equivalent to 5.5% of GDP, which will be a challenge without new sources of revenue.
Class Struggle and Future Prospects
Obrador's government has been characterized by efforts to suppress class struggle and keep wages low. Despite his populist rhetoric, Obrador has managed to maintain a status quo that benefits Mexico's elites. As Scheinbaum prepares to continue implementing AMLO's policies, major changes to address inequality and social justice appear unlikely.
This debate and the ongoing elections highlight the challenges and complexities of Mexico’s political landscape. While Sheinbaum's lead appears insurmountable, the issues raised in the debate will continue to shape public discourse and voters' priorities in the lead-up to the election. To achieve meaningful change, the focus may need to shift toward broader systemic reform and grassroots mobilization beyond current political services.